direkt zum Inhalt springen

direkt zum Hauptnavigationsmenü

Sie sind hier

Inhalt des Dokuments

SP5-RM1 Downscaling of global climate scenarios and modeling of the impacts on water resources of the Sao Francisco river basin, up-scaling of small-scale results to the catchment level

We presented preliminary results during stakeholder workshops held in Belo Horizonte and Brasilia in October 2014. Similarly, we presented during the INNOVATE status conference in Recife, also in October 2014. Please find the respective files here: PaperPosterPresentation.

Main results and outlook (as of August 2014)

Aim of RM 1 is downscaling of global climate scenarios and modelling of climate and land use change impacts on the water resources in the entire basin of the São Francisco with a focus on the Itaparica reservoir. To this end the eco-hydrological model SWIM was set-up for the entire São Francisco basin considering 1,627 subbasins, 16,416 hydrotopes (or Hydrologic Response Units) and the 4 largest reservoirs. For calibration and validation of the model, monitored discharge data of the Agência Nacional de Águas were downloaded for 175 gauges. From these 175 gauges 65 were selected to be used for the calibration and validation of the model (depending on criteria like length of time series, catchment area, only small gaps in time series). In addition, water use data from 2002 to 2013 were downloaded from Agência Nacional de Águas (Fig. 1).

Delineation of the river network and sub-basins for the São Francisco basin has been done using the SRTM-Digital Elevation Model , and the hydrotopes were created by overlaying the maps of sub-basins, land-use and soil data (Fig. 2).

SWIM has been mostly used under (central) European climate conditions. For the application in the southern hemisphere a number of adaptations were necessary concerning e.g. the vegetation dynamics (in Germany: temperature driven, in Brazil: precipitation driven). Also the crop rotation schemes with two harvests per year were adjusted. Data on cultivated crops at municipality level from Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística were applied to derive crop rotations for different regions in the basin. An example of the performance of the SWIM model after calibration is given in Fig. 3.

The latest climate scenarios of the IPCC (so-called CMIP5-runs) were analyzed for the São Francisco basin. In general there is a clear sign of increasing air temperatures but no clear sign regarding precipitation (Fig. 4).

Within the project a number of storylines (scenarios) were developed. These scenarios include changes in climate and land use, changes in water (also of new reservoirs) and land (increase in agricultural land) management. The aim for the next project period is to estimate their effects on water availability and demand in the basin.

 

Results and scenarios are presented and discussed with stakeholders (e.g. ANA, CEMIG, CHESF, CODEVASF) and the scientific community on conferences and workshops. Beside the workshops and field trips, a constant stakeholder contact is maintained by the Brazilian partners concerning exchange of data information.

Fig. 1: Location and maximum withdrawal of water users in the São Francisco basin (status 2013)
Fig. 1: Location and maximum withdrawal of water users in the São Francisco basin (status 2013)
Lupe
Fig. 2: Digital Elevation Model (brownish colours), main rivers and reservoirs (blue lines and dark blue areas) and SWIM sub-basins (black lines, left hand side), and hydrotopes (right hand side) for the São Francisco basin
Fig. 2: Digital Elevation Model (brownish colours), main rivers and reservoirs (blue lines and dark blue areas) and SWIM sub-basins (black lines, left hand side), and hydrotopes (right hand side) for the São Francisco basin
Lupe
Fig. 3: Calibration and validation of SWIM model: inflow to reservoir Tres Marias
Fig. 3: Calibration and validation of SWIM model: inflow to reservoir Tres Marias
Lupe
Fig. 4 Monthly/annual rainfall sums averaged over 42 Global Circulation Model-runs (CMIP5) for the whole São Francisco basin for different time periods and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)
Fig. 4 Monthly/annual rainfall sums averaged over 42 Global Circulation Model-runs (CMIP5) for the whole São Francisco basin for different time periods and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)
Lupe

Zusatzinformationen / Extras

Quick Access:

Schnellnavigation zur Seite über Nummerneingabe

Auxiliary Functions